Value marketBuySeasonal
Dan considers Milan van Ewijk an S-tier £4.0m defender and a strong long-term pick.
Reasoning: He says van Ewijk is nailed, offers genuine attacking threat, and has a strong profile for the price despite the underlying data coming from the Championship.
Players/teams: Milan van Ewijk (Subject), Coventry City (Team context)
Van Ewijk really is taking every box we need for a 4 million player... he is nailed on. He's going to play every single game and he has genuine attacking threat as well... he is definitely a player that you can consider owning for the long term.
Play from 0:50 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityBuyImmediate
Dan considers Dara O'Shea the best £4.0m alternative, with secure Ipswich minutes and bench-boost appeal in Gameweek 1.
Reasoning: O'Shea is described as nailed at centre-back, with strong defensive numbers and a favourable home fixture against Sunderland.
Players/teams: Dara O'Shea (Subject), Ipswich Town (Team context), Sunderland (Opponent)
O'Shea absolutely nailed on for Ipswich, will play every single game at the center back position... if you're looking for a Gameweek 1 bench boost strategy at home against Sunderland... O'Shea is definitely a player who could serve you very well.
Play from 2:29 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityBuyShort
Dan rates Jay Dasilva as a safer Coventry option than Bobby Thomas because his left-back minutes are secure.
Reasoning: Dasilva is in Dan's team as a Thomas replacement, primarily because he expects his minutes to be completely secure.
Players/teams: Jay Dasilva (Subject), Bobby Thomas (Alternative), Coventry City (Team context)
D'Silva for me right now is top of B tier. And actually he's a player who is currently in my team as a Thomas replacement. And that's largely because his minutes are just completely secure at left back.
Play from 4:26 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityAvoidImmediate
Dan advises avoiding Bobby Thomas and Liam Kitching because Coventry's new signing Raphael Adélaïde? Amenda creates rotation risk.
Reasoning: He says neither defender can be picked with confidence because Amenda has entered the centre-back competition and both players were already rotation-prone last season.
Players/teams: Liam Kitching (Subject), Aurèle Amenda (Alternative), Bobby Thomas (Subject), Coventry City (Team context)
Coventry have actually signed a new right center back in Amenda... that does definitely throw into question a little bit the nailedness of Kitching and Thomas... I don't think you can pick either of them with confidence.
Play from 5:00 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Form underlyingBuyShort
Dan sees Leif Davis as an appealing £4.0m attacking alternative because of his high expected assists and set-piece involvement.
Reasoning: Davis is expected to be important to Ipswich's attack and retain some set pieces, although Dan says he should not be expected to provide defensive contributions.
Players/teams: Ipswich Town (Team context), Leif Davis (Subject)
You're not going to get defensive contributions from him, but the 0.25 expected assists number is really high... Davies is going to be a big part of Ipswich and the way they attack... he is still going to have some [set-piece] share.
Play from 6:49 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityWatchImmediate
Dan views Dan Neil? O'Nien as a short-term £4.0m punt for Gameweeks 1-2 if Aji Alese is unavailable.
Reasoning: O'Nien has partnered Ballard in preseason while Alese has fitness concerns, making a start in the opening two gameweeks plausible.
Players/teams: Aji Alese (Minutes context), Luke O'Nien (Subject), Sunderland (Team context)
Alese is facing some fitness issues and may not be ready for Gameweek one... O'Nien could actually be starting in Gameweek 1 and 2 as a center back. And if that is the case, then 4 million is going to be really good value for money.
Play from 7:15 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Role team contextAvoidShort
Dan recommends targeting Hull attackers because Hull's defensive numbers were poor even in the Championship.
Reasoning: He highlights Hull's high expected goals conceded and low clean-sheet rate, concluding that the defence is not attractive for FPL investment.
Players/teams: Hull City (Opponent)
Hull's defensive numbers are just horrible... 1.74 xGC per 90, 24% clean sheet hit rate... we really need to be targeting Hull with our attackers.
Play from 8:15 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Value marketSellImmediate
Dan says Issa Diop should be sold or avoided in favour of Dara O'Shea because Diop offers no clear advantage and may fall in price.
Reasoning: He believes O'Shea is the better pick, and expects Diop's high ownership to lead to mass sales and a price fall.
Players/teams: Dara O'Shea (Alternative), Issa Diop (Subject)
I don't think there is anything that makes him better than O'Shea... O'Shea is the better pick than Diop. And because Diop is owned by so many more managers, he will be mass sold, and he will fall in price. Just go for O'Shea.
Play from 9:08 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityAvoidImmediate
Dan considers Matt Targett a firm £4.0m avoid because he is Hull's backup left-back and plays for a weak defence.
Reasoning: Targett is not expected to start, so he combines poor team context with uncertain or absent minutes.
Players/teams: Matt Targett (Subject), Hull City (Team context)
He has been brought in to Hull to be the backup left-back, not the starting left-back... he also won't even be starting for that defense. So an absolute firm D tier avoid.
Play from 9:39 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Value marketBuyShort
Dan recommends Kristoffer Ajer as the standout £4.5m defender, especially for managers considering an early Wildcard.
Reasoning: Van den Berg's injury should give Ajer a starting run, and Dan values his defensive-contribution potential plus Brentford's favourable opening fixtures.
Players/teams: Kristoffer Ajer (Subject), Sepp van den Berg (Minutes context), Brentford (Team context)
Van den Berg has picked up an injury. He's going to be out for 3 months, and as such, it looks like Ajer is going to be the starting left center-back for Brentford... Ajer is definitely the defender to go for at 4.5 million if you are targeting an early wild card.
Play from 11:23 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗FixturesBuyShort
Dan rates Luke Shaw as an A-tier short-term option because Manchester United have three excellent opening fixtures.
Reasoning: Shaw lacks defensive-contribution and attacking upside, so his appeal is mainly clean-sheet potential from a favourable fixture run.
Players/teams: Manchester United (Team context), Luke Shaw (Subject)
What he does have is three brilliant fixtures to start off the season... it's really the clean sheets we're looking for... their expected clean sheet rate was actually 33%, so they did underperform... which we do expect to improve.
Play from 12:57 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityWatchShort
Dan sees Joe Rodon as good £4.5m value if Leeds continue using a back three, but his minutes are risky if they switch to a back four.
Reasoning: Rodon's clean-sheet prospects and fixtures are attractive, but Dan worries he could be dropped in a four-man defence.
Players/teams: Joe Rodon (Subject), Leeds United (Team context)
The one concern about Rodon... if Leeds were to play with a back four... it is possible that Rodon drops out... as long as it remains three at the back formation, Rodon... looks really good value for 4.5 million.
Play from 13:54 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Value marketAvoidImmediate
Dan prefers Kristoffer Ajer over Coady at £4.5m because Ajer offers stronger defensive-contribution potential.
Reasoning: He says Coady has no defensive contributions and no clear attacking advantage over Ajer.
Players/teams: Kristoffer Ajer (Alternative), Conor Coady (Subject)
I'm just not as convinced by his attacking threat and there's no DEF cons there. I think with Ajer kind of being introduced, there's just no strong reason to pick Coady over Ajer.
Play from 15:11 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityAvoidImmediate
Dan does not recommend Jed Spence because of the possibility of a transfer to Inter Milan and uncertain availability at the Gameweek 1 deadline.
Reasoning: Even if Spence remains at Spurs for Gameweek 1, Dan thinks he could leave by Gameweek 2, creating transfer and rotation risk.
Players/teams: Tottenham Hotspur (Team context), Inter Milan (Transfer context), Djed Spence (Subject)
Jed Spence, currently linked to a move to Inter Milan... even if he is at Gameweek 1 deadline, by Gameweek 2 he could very well be gone. So, because of that rotation risk, that transfer risk, it's just absolutely not worth looking at.
Play from 17:55 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Value marketBuyShort
Dan considers Daniel Ballard an underpriced £5.0m defender with strong defensive-contribution and set-piece potential.
Reasoning: Ballard's defensive-contribution rate is comparable to more expensive options, and Dan also highlights his expected goals and favourable opening fixtures.
Players/teams: Dan Ballard (Subject), Sunderland (Team context)
Ballard... has incredible defensive contribution threat here. 10.4 per 90... Ballard really, I think, has been underpriced in the game. He also has great fixtures to the start of the season. So, if you are looking for an early Wildcard strategy, I think Ballard just works perfectly.
Play from 19:22 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Transfer decisionBuyShort
Dan views Harry Maguire as an excellent short-term pick for the first three Gameweeks before a Wildcard, but not a strong long-term option.
Reasoning: De Ligt's return threatens Maguire's longer-term security, while the opening fixtures and potential set-piece role make him attractive temporarily.
Players/teams: Matthijs de Ligt (Minutes context), Manchester United (Team context), Harry Maguire (Subject)
de Ligt has returned to training, which means that Maguire might not be a great long-term option. But again, if you are targeting just the first three Gameweeks before Wildcarding... Maguire is definitely that guy.
Play from 19:57 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityWatchShort
Dan rates Vuskovic as a potential elite pick but advises waiting until his Brighton minutes are secure.
Reasoning: His reported defensive-contribution and expected-goals numbers are exceptional, but Dan expects a gradual introduction and is concerned he may not start immediately.
Players/teams: Luka Vušković (Subject), Brighton & Hove Albion (Team context)
Vuskovic is going to go in C tier with the potential to be an S tier... I'm a little concerned that he [will be] slowly introduced... it might take a few weeks for him to bed in... he needs to get himself nailed on for Brighton first.
Play from 22:21 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityAvoidImmediate
Dan recommends avoiding Pedro Porro at the start of the season because his Gameweek 1 and 2 minutes are in serious doubt.
Reasoning: Porro returned late to Spurs, and Dan says he is highly doubtful to start the opening gameweek.
Players/teams: Tottenham Hotspur (Team context), Pedro Porro (Subject)
Pedro Porro is highly, highly doubtful to start in Gameweek one... that does put his minutes in the first Gameweek or two into massive, massive doubt now. So, he's not really a player I'd be looking to start the season with.
Play from 29:11 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Form underlyingBuySeasonal
Dan considers Virgil van Dijk an elite S-tier premium defender because Liverpool should improve their clean-sheet output while he offers reliable defensive contributions and attacking threat.
Reasoning: Liverpool underperformed their expected clean-sheet rate last season, and Dan compares van Dijk favourably with Manchester City's defenders.
Players/teams: Manchester City (Comparison), Virgil van Dijk (Subject), Liverpool (Team context)
Liverpool are a good defense who underperformed last season. I think they can get closer to their expected 35% clean sheet rate... Virgil as a nailed-on Man City level defender with arguably just as much... attacking threat and certainly more defensive contribution threat... he's an elite pick.
Play from 29:30 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Value marketSellSeasonal
Dan considers Gabriel an excellent defender but poor FPL value at £8.0m compared with cheaper Arsenal alternatives.
Reasoning: He believes managers can obtain Arsenal clean-sheet coverage, defensive-contribution coverage and attacking upside from cheaper options while freeing £2.5m for other positions.
Players/teams: Riccardo Calafiori (Alternative), Gabriel Magalhães (Subject), Arsenal (Team context), Mosquera (Alternative)
He's just not good value for money... with players like Mascarell and Calafiori, you can save 2.5 million... I do think there are other ways to build a team without Gabriel... he's a very natural player to sacrifice if you are looking for money to invest in other areas.
Play from 30:14 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityAvoidImmediate
Dan recommends avoiding Manchester City defenders priced around £6.0m because their minutes are not secure under a rotation-prone setup.
Reasoning: He highlights the number of positional options and says even Marc Guéhi and Matt O'Riley are unlikely to start every game, while Gvardiol is the comparatively preferred option because of his versatility and lower price.
Players/teams: Marc Guéhi (Subject), Manchester City (Team context), Matheus Nunes (Subject), Matt O'Riley (Subject), Joško Gvardiol (Preferred alternative)
I've put rotation icons next to these two players because I'm not fully convinced by their minutes... I think Guehi will start a lot of games for Man City, but I don't think he'll start every game... none of them are safe... it is unwise... to assume that you can guarantee any of these players minutes.
Play from 31:42 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗Minutes availabilityAvoidImmediate
Dan recommends avoiding Jurriën Timber because a minor injury could rule him out for Gameweeks 1-2 and potentially much longer.
Reasoning: He describes Timber as a major early-season doubt and says the uncertainty is not worth accepting at his price.
Players/teams: Jurriën Timber (Subject), Arsenal (Team context)
We've got Timber, 6.5 million, but a major doubt for Gameweek 1, Gameweek 2 potentially... suddenly he's out for 2 months... Just avoid this pick. It is not worth the headache.
Play from 34:57 · 5 seconds before evidence ↗